From China to the Czech Republic, from Portugal to Peru, foreign stock markets are on a tear. They have trounced the S&P 500 over the past five years, and most are on track to do it again in 2007. As of early December, Morgan Stanley Capital International’s index of 21 major non-U.S. markets had posted a 12% gain, vs. 4.4% for the S&P. And that covers just large nations. Emerging markets were up 36% – the kind of returns that will tempt any investor to look beyond America’s shores. Next year, though, international markets could very well face a critical test: Can they continue to run even if the U.S. economy limps?
There’s a lively debate among analysts and economists nowadays, and a phrase that’s getting plenty of use is “global decoupling.” The idea is that unlike a decade ago, economies in Europe and Asia can thrive regardless of the strength of the U.S., propelled instead by the purring engine of China and other developing dynamos. China’s economy, for example, is expected to grow more than 10% next year – on top of 12% in 2007 – and remain a key driver of global expansion. Audrey Kaplan, manager of the Federated InterContinental fund, describes what she sees as the new reality: “What was once a single-engine economy now has multiple engines.”
Global investing, of course, comes with particular challenges. China’s markets could already very well be too hot, for instance. And the benefits of the weakening U.S. dollar, which helped propel many stocks in Europe and the Far East in 2007, might not continue, eliminating some of the appeal of foreign stocks for U.S. investors. In other words, global success in 2008 is going to require some stock-picking acumen. “We can’t just count on a rising tide to lift all boats,” says analyst Vladimir Milev of Metzler/Payden, a money management firm that specializes in European companies.
To find stocks with exceptional potential, we spoke to top foreign-fund managers and analysts, looking for great investments from Europe to the Far East. The five picks we highlight below all present opportunities to capitalize on vibrant economies and rising prosperity. The shares all trade an American depositary receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange, making them as easy to buy or sell as any blue-chip domestic stock.
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