Posts Tagged ‘Multiplier’

The Downward Multiplier

Friday, February 17th, 2012


So far, we have applied the multiplier only to increases in investment spending. However, the multiplier also works in reverse. Suppose that investment spending fell from its previous level. This would reduce incomes by the same amount, with the result that spending would be cut back. These spending cuts would reduce other incomes, which would cause further spending cuts, and so on. This process is known as the “downward multiplier. Obviously, it can contribute  seriously to recessions and depressions, by nearly doubling the economic impact of reductions in investment spending. Thus, with a multiplier of 1.6, a reduction in investment of $3.0 billion would lead to a $4.8 billion decline in GNP.

 

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The Canadian Multiplier

Monday, February 13th, 2012


In the Canadian economy, the multiplier tends to be smaller than in the above examples, due mostly to the large proportion of income spent on imports (another “leakage”) from the Canadian economy). The Economic Council of Canada has estimated that, for government spending on capital formation (such as public works projects), the size of the multiplier is 1.6 over a one-year period. That is, a $1,000,000 increase in expenditures on public works will boost GNP and total incomes by $1,600,000 over the next year.

 

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The Respending Effect with a Multiplier of Two

Thursday, February 9th, 2012


Calculation of the multiplier

Obviously, the size of the multiplier depends on how much of each increase in income is respent  at each stage. If a greater fraction is respent, the respending effect will be greater, and the multiplier will be larger.

 

forex1 300x171 The Respending Effect with a Multiplier of Two

Know what fraction of increases in income will or will not be respent at each stage, we can calculate the multiplier from the following formula:

the multiplier = _______1_______

                            the fraction of increases in income that is not present

Using our previous example, since 50 percent of increases in income was respent, 50 percent was not respent (or went to “leakages”), so that the  multiplier would be calculated as follows:

the multiplier = 1/.50 0r 1/1/2 = 2.0

The size of the multiplier is not fixed; it depends on the proportion of increases in income that is respent at each stage. If 60 percent of increases in incomes were respent, the multiplier would be 2.5, or 1 divided by .40. This larger multiplier reflects the fact that the respending effect is larger in this case (60 percent rather than 50 percent). On the other hand, if a smaller proportion of income were respent, the multiplier would be smaller.

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The Respending Effect Underlying the Multiplier

Sunday, February 5th, 2012


forex 300x192 The Respending Effect Underlying the MultiplierIt has caused GNP and total incomes to rise by $200 million, as shown in Figure 8-9. In this example, the size of the multiplier is two, because an increase in investment of $100 million caused the GNP to rise by $200 million. So far, we have simply stated that the size of the multiplier in our example was two; next we will see how the size of the multiplier can be calculated.

 

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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Combined

Friday, January 20th, 2012


In Chapter 9, we saw how the federal government’s Department of Finance uses fiscal policy to influence the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Since the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada discussed in this chapter also influences aggregate demand, we should review briefly how monetary and fiscal policies can interact so as to affect the performance of the economy.

During a recession, when aggregate demand is inadequate, a budget deficit (achieved through increased government spending and/or tax reductions) is usually combined with an easy-money policy consisting of lower interest rates and increased availability of loans. The objective of these policies is to increase the demand for goods and services by households and businesses. This increase in spending will be added to by the respending effect of the multiplier, and will be in large part financed by increases in the money supply resulting from increased bank lending. Also, it is possible that increased consumer spending may cause businesses to increase their investment spending (the accelerator effect), a process which would also be financed by the increased money supply through bank lending, encouraged by reductions in interest on loans. The overall result would be to stimulate output and employment in the economy.

During a period of inflation, aggregate demand for goods and services is so high that the supply of them cannot keep pace, with the result that prices rice with unusual rapidity. To combat inflation, a combination of a budget surplus (tax revenues in excess of government spending) and tight money, with loans relatively scarce and interest rates high, is appropriate. The objective of these policies is to depress the demand for goods and services, so as to relieve the pressure of excess demand on the supply and on the prices of goods and services. Government spending will be held down, while tax increases and high interest rates will restrain borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses. With total demand depressed in these ways, the rate of inflation will tend to decrease.

By combining the the fiscal policy of the Department of Finance and the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada in these ways, the effect can be considerably stronger than if either were used by itself.

In summary, then, tight-money policies are used to combat inflation by depressing the level of aggregate demand. While these policies will slow down inflation, they also tend to slow down the economy and increase unemployment, and they have particularly severe effects upon certain industries.

 

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