Suppose that 100 people each deposited $1,000 worth of gold coins with Mr. Gould, a London goldsmith. He would issue to each customer a receipt for $1,000, in which he undertook to return the money to the depositor whenever he presented this receipt. (He would not undertake however to give the depositor the very same coins which he had brought in; instead he would promise – and this of course would be perfectly acceptable – to give back coins of exactly the same value.) Now suppose that Mr. Gould puts the $100,000 away in two boxes of different size. Into the larger one he puts $90,000 and into the smaller one the other $10,000. The large box he stores in his vault; the small box he keeps readily accessible at the front of his shop, so that when depositors come in, presenting their receipts and asking for their gold back, he has a ready-to-hand supply out of which to pay them. The goldsmith plans that, when the front is emptied, he will replenish it from the large box in the vault.
His experience confounds his expectations. On the first day after he has received the deposits, three individuals come in, present their receipts, and ask for $3,000 of gold. The goldsmith gives them money, leaving $7,000 in the box. But the same day three new depositors come along and deposit another $3,000 in gold, so that at the end of the day, the box is again full. The next day and every day thereafter the same sort of thing happens: he pays out some money to a few people who present receipts, but takes in other money from new depositors. Withdrawals and new deposits are not exactly equal each day, of course. On some days withdrawals exceed fresh deposits, and, at the end of such days the level of gold in the box is down. On other days deposits exceed withdrawals, and at the end of such days the level of gold in the box is up.
At the end of a year the goldsmith finds, to his astonishment, that at no time has that small box ever been completely empty. The amount of gold in it has fluctuated, decreasing with withdrawals and increasing with deposits, but at no time was there no gold in it at all. At no time, therefore, was it necessary for the goldsmith to go to the large box in his vault to replenish the supply of coins in the small box he kept in the front of his shop. The gold in that large box has just lain undisturbed all year; it was never actually needed to make payments to depositors.
A shrewd goldsmith would realize that here he had a wonderful opportunity for gaining extra income for himself. He could lend out the $90,000 of gold in the big box, and collect interest on the loan. No one would be harmed. If matters proceeded in the future as they had in the past, he would still be able to pay gold to everyone who presented a receipt and asked for gold. The gold kept in the small box would be sufficient to meet all actual demands provided that, as before, only the occasional receipt holder came in on any one day to ask for his money, and provided too that new depositors from day to day brought in fresh gold. There would be trouble only if a large number of receipt holders simultaneously came to the shop and demanded their money; in such a case he could not possibly fulfill his undertaking to give each depositor his gold on request. But such a development was most unlikely. Depositors actually needed their gold only occasionally. Provided they were confident that they could get it whenever they wanted it, the great majority of receipt holders would be content to leave their gold with the goldsmith. Out of the little supply he kept in the small box, replenished as it was by fresh deposits, the goldsmith would easily be able to pay gold on all occasions when receipt holders so requested.
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