Posts Tagged ‘High Interest Rates’

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Combined

Friday, January 20th, 2012


In Chapter 9, we saw how the federal government’s Department of Finance uses fiscal policy to influence the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Since the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada discussed in this chapter also influences aggregate demand, we should review briefly how monetary and fiscal policies can interact so as to affect the performance of the economy.

During a recession, when aggregate demand is inadequate, a budget deficit (achieved through increased government spending and/or tax reductions) is usually combined with an easy-money policy consisting of lower interest rates and increased availability of loans. The objective of these policies is to increase the demand for goods and services by households and businesses. This increase in spending will be added to by the respending effect of the multiplier, and will be in large part financed by increases in the money supply resulting from increased bank lending. Also, it is possible that increased consumer spending may cause businesses to increase their investment spending (the accelerator effect), a process which would also be financed by the increased money supply through bank lending, encouraged by reductions in interest on loans. The overall result would be to stimulate output and employment in the economy.

During a period of inflation, aggregate demand for goods and services is so high that the supply of them cannot keep pace, with the result that prices rice with unusual rapidity. To combat inflation, a combination of a budget surplus (tax revenues in excess of government spending) and tight money, with loans relatively scarce and interest rates high, is appropriate. The objective of these policies is to depress the demand for goods and services, so as to relieve the pressure of excess demand on the supply and on the prices of goods and services. Government spending will be held down, while tax increases and high interest rates will restrain borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses. With total demand depressed in these ways, the rate of inflation will tend to decrease.

By combining the the fiscal policy of the Department of Finance and the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada in these ways, the effect can be considerably stronger than if either were used by itself.

In summary, then, tight-money policies are used to combat inflation by depressing the level of aggregate demand. While these policies will slow down inflation, they also tend to slow down the economy and increase unemployment, and they have particularly severe effects upon certain industries.

 

Park Mazda

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Effects of Tight Money

Monday, January 16th, 2012


Businesses, on the other hand, tend to have smaller profit margins and therefore be more dependent upon borrowing to finance capital investment projects and less able to afford high interest rates. As a result, the scarcity of credit and high interest rates associated with tight money tend to hurt small businesses more than big corporations.

Tight money also affects some industries more severely than others. Construction is probably the industry most severely affected by tight money, because high mortgage rates and scarce credit discourage the buying of new homes and commercial and industrial buildings. Because investment spending is depressed by high rates, tight money also tends to have bad effects on all the capital-goods industries, such as building materials and industrial equipment. In the consumer-goods sector, the effects of tight money fall the hardest on the “big-ticket” items such as cars and appliances, which involve considerable borrowing and/or tied to sales of new houses.

Governments seeking to combat inflation with tight money often encounter political problems due to the high mortgage interest rates associated with such a policy, which are especially burdensome to prospective home buyers. Rising mortgage interest rates have a dramatic effect upon the monthly payments faced by homeowners. While home buyers are hardest hit, all borrowers are adversely affected high interest rates. This problem is really a political one more than an economic one, but this political reality places a limit on the level of interest rates and, thus, on the effectiveness of tight money as an anti-inflation weapon.

 

Park Mazda

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Long-Term Borrowing

Monday, December 5th, 2011


A major source of funds for capital investment is long-term borrowing, through the issue of bonds that are usually repayable after ten or more years. However, severe inflation makes it much less attractive to corporations to engage in long-term borrowing, by forcing interest rates to high levels. Inflation causes high interest rates in two ways: first, lenders demand an interest “premium” to compensate them for the declining value of their capital, and, second, the policies used by the government to restrain inflation involve increases in interest rates. In particular, the very high interest rates associated with the severe inflation of the 1970′s made many corporations reluctant to raise capital through bond issues that would commit them to paying very high interest expenses for many years.

It seems logical that such high interest rates would at least provide people with strong incentives to save, but this is not so, due to the effects of inflation and taxation. Figure 15-4 shows the return on $100 of savings invested at a 15-percent rate of interest for one year during which the rate of inflation is 12 percent. Although 15 percent seems like a high rate of interest, this is very misleading. While $15 of interest income is received, the purchasing power of the lender’s capital declines by $12 (12 percent of $100) due to inflation, leaving a real return of $3. Assuming that income tax is payable at a rate of 40 percent on the interest income, taxes will amount to $6 (40 percent of $15), leaving a net after-tax return of -$3.

 

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Side Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Monday, April 25th, 2011


The monetary and fiscal policies described above will slow down inflation, but by depressing aggregate demand they will also slow down the economy, causing unemployment to rise. In particular, the high interest rates associated with tight money are likely to depress capital investment spending and the capital-goods industries, including housing. Thus, combating inflation with monetary and fiscal policies involves the sacrifice of other important economic goals, such as full employment and economic growth.

As a result, these anti-inflation policies (high interest rates, scarce credit, cuts in government spending) and their side effects (slower growth and higher unemployment) tend to be politically unpopular, making it difficult for governments to persist in using them for long. Despite these problems, these policies, particularly monetary restraint, are generally regarded as essential to combating inflation, because only these policies attack the excessive aggregate demand that is the root cause of inflation.

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