Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has signalled he will move cautiously on future interest-rate hikes, given the growing and difficult challenges facing the world’s economic system.
In a speech full of red flags for the world’s recovery, Carney told international business leaders in Calgary that the world is in need of major reforms and that adjustments will be wrenching.
“The fact is we’re three years in to the global financial crisis and its dynamics still dominate the economic outlook,” Carney told the forum.
“In particular, broad forces of bank, household and sovereignty leveraging can be expected to add to the variability and temper the pace of global economic growth in the years ahead,” he said.
In addition, he made it clear that he was concerned about the weak U.S. economy, noting it could have “important implications” for Canada’s future growth.
“In this environment, the bank will have to chart a careful course for Canadian monetary policy,” he said.
“Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered in light of the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook,” he added, repeating the same language he used when he hiked the bank’s overnight rate a further quarter point to one percent.
It was the third successive rate hike since June and put the Canadian central bank alone among the Group of Seven economies on a path of withdrawing monetary stimulus.
The address, part of a panel discussion focusing on the upcoming G20 summit in South Korea, was as gloomy as Carney has been in some time about the difficulties facing the global economic and financial systems and efforts to address them.
“The question is whether to change the system or to change policies to be consistent with the current system. There’s no miracle cure,” said Carney.
“Faith is required but not in some barbarous relic like gold or utopian global central bank. Rather countries must restore their faith in the adjustment process under the current international monetary system.”
Carney said both the International Monetary Fund and G7 institutions have proven wanting and the jury is still out on the new, bigger G20 process.
He was especially critical of emerging economies such as China, which have yet to make adjustments made so far, he said, have come from advanced economies in efforts to rein in spending.
“Measures that have actually been implemented have been consistent with the deflation path. While the…right promises have been made, conviction is required,” he said.
“Without the successful completion of the G20 reforms, the current recovery is at risk.”
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