Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Monetary Policy: Who Should Call the Shots?

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012


Obviously, the conduct of monetary policy is extremely important to the nation’s economy. A properly conducted monetary policy can be very beneficial, whereas errors in monetary policy can have severe effects on the economy, either due to the creation of too much or too little money.

Who should make such important decisions? Some people believe that the financial experts at the Bank of Canada, who possess specialized knowledge of monetary matters, should have the responsibility and the power to decide the nation’s monetary policy. Other people disagree. They argue that such important policy decisions should not be made by the appointed officials at the Bank of Canada, but rather by the government, which was elected by (and is ultimately responsible to) the people.

The question of who possessed the final responsibility and authority for monetary policy remained somewhat vague until 1960, when matters came to a head in the celebrated “Coyne affair.” James Coyne, governor of the Bank of Canada, was pursuing a tight-money policy at the same time as the federal government was trying to stimulate the economy with budget deficits. When Coyne refused to alter the Bank of Canada’s policies, the government in effect dismissed him by introducing legislation declaring his position vacant. By this act, the government established itself as the final authority in the area of monetary policy. This was given legislative authority in amendments to the Bank of Canada Act in 1967, which stated that in the event of disagreement between the government and the Bank of Canada, the government can direct the central bank in writing as to the monetary policy to be followed.

Supporters of the government’s authority over the Bank of Canada argue that, without this authority, the government cannot ensure that the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy is consistent with the federal government’s fiscal policies, and point to the Coyne affair as evidence on their behalf. Critics of the government’s authority over monetary policy have little faith in the economic judgement of politicians.

 

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Tech is Growing Fast

Thursday, October 6th, 2011


A Research estimates IT spending will grow by 9% this year and 7% next year. Compare that to the expected GDP growth of 2% or 3% for the overall economy. As well, technology companies are projecting an average earnings growth of 15% to 20% next year, versus 7% or so for the broad market. Investors expect the faster growing earnings to catch up with higher stock prices, which justifies the higher P/E multiple.

Even better, that valuation premium isn’t as high as it appears to be. These days many technology companies have tons of cash on their balance sheets, averaging between 10% and 20% of their market capitalization. A software company, for example, has cash assets representing some $4 per share. That means if you bought the company’s stock today at $25, you’re really only paying $21. After adjusting the price of the shares for the value of the cash on hand, the software company’s P/E ratio drops from 12 times to 10 times. Several technology stocks have become so cheap that they are now considered true value picks. Because of all that cash, the average technology P/E ratio is actually more like 18 or 19 times, not 21.

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The Full Employment Deficit or Surplus

Thursday, September 15th, 2011


The extra government expenditure is a new injection and income will rise until a matching flow of withdrawals has been generated. Since taxes are only one of several withdrawals, it follows that the rise in taxes must be less than the rise in government expenditure.

It is not clear that we can talk not only about the actual (or “current”) budget deficit or surplus at the present level of national income, but also about the potential budget deficit or surplus at any other level of national income, given current rates of taxes and expenditures. The potential deficit or surplus of particular interest is the one that would occur if the economy were at full employment; it is called the full-employment balance. Notice that the current deficit will be larger than the full-employment deficit for any economy whose current income is less than full-employment income; the reason is that as income rises, the yield from a given set of tax rates rises and hence the deficit falls.

 

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Fine Tuning

Monday, September 12th, 2011


In the heydey of Keynesian fiscal policy in the 1950s and 1960s many economists throughout the world advocated the use of fiscal policy to remove even minor fluctuations in national income around its full-employment level. These economists felt that G and T could be changed frequently and by relatively small amounts to hold national income almost exactly at its full-employment level. When this is attempted, fiscal policy is said to be used to “fine tune” the economy.

The feasibility of fine tuning depends on, among other things, the length of the so-called decision lag-the lag between perceiving a problem and getting a decision to initiate these.
 

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Objectives of Fiscal Policy

Thursday, September 8th, 2011


We have seen that fiscal policy can be used to remove inflationary and deflationary gaps. We must now consider the second principal question of this chapter: What can the government reasonably expect to achieve by using fiscal policy?

Fiscal policy might be altered more or less continually in an effort to stabilize the economy completely, or it might be altered less frequently as a reaction to only those gaps that appear large in size and fairly persistent in duration.

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Inflation since the early 1970′s

Sunday, July 10th, 2011


As we have seen, the 8 to 10 – percent annual inflation rates of the period since the early 1970′s have been dramatically higher than the inflation rates of 2 to 5 – percent characteristic of the 1950′s and 1960′s. Such rapid inflation rates have caused great concern among the public, as well as considerable confusion as to their causes. Generally, it is reasonable to say, that the real causes of this severe inflation were quite different from what the public believed to be its causes.

While the period since the early 1970′s has seen exceptional (and well-publicized) increases in oil, energy and food prices, as well as huge income gains by many groups, these were not the basic causes of the severe inflation, but rather contributing factors to it. In the view of most economists, the basic causes of the rapid inflation of the 1970′s lay in exceptional increases in aggregate demand, which simply outran the economy’s capacity to produce, thus generating the worst inflation in many years. Underlying these however, because the economy and the appropriate money supply generally grow from year to year, it is not often appropriate for the Bank of Canada to actually reduce the money supply, except for quite short periods. The question, rather, is generally how rapidly the money supply should be allowed to increase. When the Bank of Canada is seeking to slow down the rate of growth of the money supply by restraining the lending activities of the banks, these policies are also generally described as “tight money policies.”

Thus, the primary tool of monetary policy is the open-market operations of the Bank of Canada, in which purchases and sales of bonds by the Bank of Canada increase and decrease the banks’ cash reserves, and thus the money supply. The Bank of Canada, however, does have other methods of influencing the volume of lending by the banks and thus the money supply, some of which are discussed in the following sections.

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