Posts Tagged ‘Economic Stagnation’

How Can Budget Deficits Cause Economic Stagnation?

Friday, January 22nd, 2010


This is a good question – how can deficits, which increase aggregate demand, contribute to economic stagnation? The problem concerning stagnation arises not on the demand side of the economy, but rather on the supply side. If large government budget deficits are financed by heavy borrowing by government, in competition with business borrowing, the result can be depressed capital investment by business.

Business investment spending could be depressed for two reasons. First, the excess demand for the limited volume of savings could drive interest considered appropriate to borrow to buy them and repay the loan in the future.

Another reason for federal government borrowing is to finance budget deficits to combat recessions. Thus, the federal government’s responsibility for minimizing the effects of recessions sometimes requires it to go into debt. Historically, another major reason for government borrowing and increases in the National Debt has been the financing of wartime expenditures. For example, the Second World War added over $10,000,000,000 to Canada’s National Debt.

Each of the above is generally considered to be a legitimate reason for borrowing by the government. However, ordinary operating expenses of the government, such as its payroll, should be paid for by tax revenues. It is not considered to be good financial practice to borrow (or even worse, print) money to cover operating expenses, or to avoid a necessary increase in taxes for political reasons, any more than it is considered appropriate for households to go into debt to pay their telephone or food bills.

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What Problems Could Excessive Deficits Cause?

Monday, January 18th, 2010


That depends largely on how the budget deficits are financed. If they are financed by printing money, there is a real danger that rapid increases in the volume of money in circulation (the “money supply”) will cause rapid inflation. This is the most obvious danger in excessive budget deficits, and the one with which most observers are familiar. However, there is another, more subtle, danger in excessive budget deficits: they can also contribute to slow economic growth, or economic “stagnation.”

The Perils of Budget Deficits

Budget deficits can be likened to drinking liquor, in that if they are properly timed and used in appropriate quantities, they will not be harmful and in fact can be beneficial. However, as with liquor, excessive budget deficits can have severe side effects, including a “hangover” of severe inflation accompanied by stagnation, or “stagflation.” And, like a hangover, it can be considerably easier to get into this situation than it is to get out of it.

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Inflation Can Cause Economic Stagnation

Sunday, December 27th, 2009


Ordinarily, inflation has been associated with periods of high aggregate demand, brisk economic growth and low unemployment, as we will see later in this chapter. Recently, however, its has become apparent that very rapid inflation can actually contribute to economic stagnation and high unemployment, by depressing capital investment spending by business.

Inflation can have this effect for two reasons: first, inflation causes higher interest rates. Fearing that continuing inflation will erode the real value of the capital that they loan out, lenders will insist on higher interest rates to offset the declining value of their capital.

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