Posts Tagged ‘Consumer Spending’

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Combined

Friday, January 20th, 2012


In Chapter 9, we saw how the federal government’s Department of Finance uses fiscal policy to influence the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Since the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada discussed in this chapter also influences aggregate demand, we should review briefly how monetary and fiscal policies can interact so as to affect the performance of the economy.

During a recession, when aggregate demand is inadequate, a budget deficit (achieved through increased government spending and/or tax reductions) is usually combined with an easy-money policy consisting of lower interest rates and increased availability of loans. The objective of these policies is to increase the demand for goods and services by households and businesses. This increase in spending will be added to by the respending effect of the multiplier, and will be in large part financed by increases in the money supply resulting from increased bank lending. Also, it is possible that increased consumer spending may cause businesses to increase their investment spending (the accelerator effect), a process which would also be financed by the increased money supply through bank lending, encouraged by reductions in interest on loans. The overall result would be to stimulate output and employment in the economy.

During a period of inflation, aggregate demand for goods and services is so high that the supply of them cannot keep pace, with the result that prices rice with unusual rapidity. To combat inflation, a combination of a budget surplus (tax revenues in excess of government spending) and tight money, with loans relatively scarce and interest rates high, is appropriate. The objective of these policies is to depress the demand for goods and services, so as to relieve the pressure of excess demand on the supply and on the prices of goods and services. Government spending will be held down, while tax increases and high interest rates will restrain borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses. With total demand depressed in these ways, the rate of inflation will tend to decrease.

By combining the the fiscal policy of the Department of Finance and the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada in these ways, the effect can be considerably stronger than if either were used by itself.

In summary, then, tight-money policies are used to combat inflation by depressing the level of aggregate demand. While these policies will slow down inflation, they also tend to slow down the economy and increase unemployment, and they have particularly severe effects upon certain industries.

 

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Combating cost-push Inflation

Friday, April 29th, 2011


However, cubs on demand and the money supply may not always in themselves be sufficient. We have seen that, in addition to demand pull inflationary pressures, there are also cost-push forces, and that these can be particularly powerful and troublesome if “inflation psychology” is strong among the public. Thus, if output per worker-hour is rising only 1 percent per year, and workers seek – and get – wage increases of 10 percent per year in their attempts to protect themselves from inflation, production costs (and prices) are bound to rise quite rapidly. Thus, while stressing the vital role of monetary policy, Beigie states that “monetary policy alone is unlikely to cure inflationary pressures originating in excessive income expectation…”, and adds that “it is imperative that expectations be kept in line with potentials.”

Another way to develop a budget surplus would be to increase taxes. In theory, an increase in taxes (for example, personal income taxes) helps to combat inflation by reducing consumer spending and thus aggregate demand. On the other hand, such a tax increase could also prove largely self-defeating. If many wage-earners succeeded in offsetting it by increasing their incomes more rapidly, causing additional cost-push pressures on prices.

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The Bank of Canada

Monday, September 6th, 2010


The Bank of Canada has increased the target for its trend-setting overnight lending rate on July 20, raising it by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75 percent. The increase follows on the heels of an equal interest rate increase in June 2010, when it was raised for the first time since 2007. The Bank rate now stands at one percent.

In its most recent interest rate announcement, the Bank marked down its outlook for economic growth globally, emphasizing the uneven economic recovery in the U.S. and weakening prospects for European economic growth.

In the Bank’s view, Canada’s domestic economy is largely evolving as expected in recent months, but it trimmed its forecast for economic growth this year and next by 0.2 percent to 3.5 percent in 2010 and 2.9 percent in 2011. While the Bank raised its forecast for Canadian economic to 2.2 percent in 2012, it nonetheless left the easing trend for growth intact.

The Bank indicates, “[this] revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.

“Where the domestic recovery had previously been led by housing and consumer spending it is now guided more by government stimulus.”

The Bank also reaffirmed its view that housing activity and household expenditures were pulled forward into the first half of 2010, which is expected to cause them to soften in the second half. It also recognized that business investment has been weaker than it previously expected, “held back by global uncertainties.” The Bank anticipates that “business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth” over its forecast horizon.

As of July 20, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate of 5.79 percent was down 0.06 percent from one year earlier, and 0.2 percent below where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on June 1. However, it is 0.3 percentage points higher than it was at the beginning of the year.

The Bank has signaled to financial markets that it is leaving its options open as to whether it will raise interest rates further when it makes its next rate announcement on September 8.

“As it did with its previous announcement in June, the Bank messaged financial markets that further interest rate increases are not pre-ordained,” says Gregory Klump, chief economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association. “The strength of recent economic indicators has prompted the Bank to raise interest rates, but the Bank has signaled that it may keep rates on hold should the economic recovery begin to show signs of losing steam.”

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The Biggest Risk?

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010


Could somebody please tell the commodity price party to keep the noise down-the U.S. economy is trying to sleep. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Future Price Index for Commodities came within a heartbeat of establishing another record high this week, led by $116 oil. While it’s tempting, to dismiss the persistent commodity surge as speculative, the inconvenient counter-point to that theory is that many non-exchange traded prices are ramping up even more quickly (e.g..iron, potash). Is it possible that while the bulk of the financial world was busy navel-gazing at the “worst crisis since the depression”, it may have overlooked a potentially bigger and more lasting problem hurtling down the mountain i.e. raging global inflation pressures?

Many have been calling for a softening U.S. economy to undercut strong commodity prices. It’s increasingly looking like those tables have been turned-persistently strong commodities are threatening to further undercut a struggling US economy. That is, the ongoing strength in food and oil prices themselves will act as an added drag on U.S. growth, by sapping consumer spending power. The challenge for the global economy would be if commodity prices kept rising even if the US$ begins to find firm footing.

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Stabilizing the Economy: Government Fiscal Policy

Sunday, February 14th, 2010


Rather than merely hiring the unemployed to do work of little value. For example, tax cuts increase consumer spending, which stimulates many industries. Also, the effects of government spending (such as on a public works project) will spread, via the multiplier effect, through the economy, increasing consumer spending, too. Also, by generating a more favorable economic climate, these efforts by the government can result in increased business investment spending. Thus, the effects of budget deficits designed to stimulate employment will be felt all through the economy, from the toy industry to the construction industry – not merely in the hiring of the unemployed by the government.

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Economic Recovery

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010


Amid hopes of economic recovery and renewed investor appetite for riskier assets, most of the global indices reversed their first-quarter losses during the second quarter of 2009, returning their best quarterly performance in more 20 years.

The upward movement continued in the third quarter, with equities trending higher. Analyst upgrades across sectors, combined with a spurt in deal activity, supported this uptick. However, the Federal Reserves announcement that it would be slowing the purchases of mortgage debt was sobering, as many worried about the sustainability of the recovery process if the stimulus was withdrawn too early.

In Europe, economically sensitive areas, such as industrials and consumer discretionary, continued to rise, while pharmaceuticals also performed well, buoyed by consolidation in the sector. Economic indicators continued to improve, and the European Central Bank policy makers signaled they intend to leave emergency lending measures in place next year to support an economic recovery.

In Asia-Pacific, industrial production expanded in most of the Asian economies, indicating that their policy measures are gaining traction. The private sector too is recovering well in many countries, with lower interest rates and government incentives driving consumer spending in Asia.

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