Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

Assumptions of the Quantity Theory

Thursday, November 25th, 2010


The demand for money. The quantity theory assumes that the demand for money changes directly and in strict proportion to the level of national income – an assumption that is not unreasonable if the transactions demand is the only source of the desire to hold money balances.

To express this assumption in symbolic terms, let md Assumptions of the Quantity Theory stand for the demand for money, let Y stand for real national income, and let P stand for the average price at which goods and services are sold in the markets of the economy. Then we can write the assumed relationship as

md1 Assumptions of the Quantity Theory

where k is a constant showing desired money balances as a fraction of the value of annual national income. If firms and households hold money balances equal to the value of two weeks’ sales and purchases, k would be 1/26 and the demand for money could be expressed as md2 Assumptions of the Quantity Theory

The supply of money. For the moment we shall assume that the overall quantity of money, which we designate by M, can be set at any amount desired by the Bank of Canada operating in its capacity as the nation’s central bank. Within broad limits, as we have seen, the privately owned banks can exercise considerable control over the money supply. The limits themselves are determined by the central bank, which has the ultimate power to control major changes in the supply of money.

The demand for money and aggregate demand. The link between money and aggregate demand for commodities is provided in the classical quantity theory by the assumption that when firms and households do not hold the amount of money that they would like to hold, they try to alter their money holdings by altering their expenditures on commodities. If they have more money than they wish to hold, they raise their expenditures on commodities. If they have more money than they wish to hold, they raise their expenditures above their receipts so as to spend their unwanted money balances. This raises aggregate demand. If they have less money than they wish to hold, they cut their spending below their receipts so as to increase their holdings. This lowers aggregate demand.

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The Biggest Risk?

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010


Could somebody please tell the commodity price party to keep the noise down-the U.S. economy is trying to sleep. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Future Price Index for Commodities came within a heartbeat of establishing another record high this week, led by $116 oil. While it’s tempting, to dismiss the persistent commodity surge as speculative, the inconvenient counter-point to that theory is that many non-exchange traded prices are ramping up even more quickly (e.g..iron, potash). Is it possible that while the bulk of the financial world was busy navel-gazing at the “worst crisis since the depression”, it may have overlooked a potentially bigger and more lasting problem hurtling down the mountain i.e. raging global inflation pressures?

Many have been calling for a softening U.S. economy to undercut strong commodity prices. It’s increasingly looking like those tables have been turned-persistently strong commodities are threatening to further undercut a struggling US economy. That is, the ongoing strength in food and oil prices themselves will act as an added drag on U.S. growth, by sapping consumer spending power. The challenge for the global economy would be if commodity prices kept rising even if the US$ begins to find firm footing.

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Risk Perception Rise is Healthy

Saturday, May 26th, 2007


Stock markets around the world have been rocked in the last several months by an increasing perception of risk particularly emanating from Asia. Previously stock markets had continued to perform well, an upward trend since 2003. The recent concerns reflects the instabilities of the Chinese stock markets, following its spectacular rise and announcements by the Chinese financial authorities that they are targeting slower growth – around 8 % , this year compared to 10.7 % in 2006 – which could trigger a subsequent decline in demand for commodities.

The People’s Bank of China and other Chinese government financial institutions have repeatedly taken measures to slow the overheated pace of infrastructure spending , while encouraging domestic consumer demand, This is exactly what the White House and the highly partisan U.S. Congress would like to see to forestall the threat of protectionist legislation.

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