Posts Tagged ‘bonds’

Inflation since the early 1970′s

Sunday, July 10th, 2011


As we have seen, the 8 to 10 – percent annual inflation rates of the period since the early 1970′s have been dramatically higher than the inflation rates of 2 to 5 – percent characteristic of the 1950′s and 1960′s. Such rapid inflation rates have caused great concern among the public, as well as considerable confusion as to their causes. Generally, it is reasonable to say, that the real causes of this severe inflation were quite different from what the public believed to be its causes.

While the period since the early 1970′s has seen exceptional (and well-publicized) increases in oil, energy and food prices, as well as huge income gains by many groups, these were not the basic causes of the severe inflation, but rather contributing factors to it. In the view of most economists, the basic causes of the rapid inflation of the 1970′s lay in exceptional increases in aggregate demand, which simply outran the economy’s capacity to produce, thus generating the worst inflation in many years. Underlying these however, because the economy and the appropriate money supply generally grow from year to year, it is not often appropriate for the Bank of Canada to actually reduce the money supply, except for quite short periods. The question, rather, is generally how rapidly the money supply should be allowed to increase. When the Bank of Canada is seeking to slow down the rate of growth of the money supply by restraining the lending activities of the banks, these policies are also generally described as “tight money policies.”

Thus, the primary tool of monetary policy is the open-market operations of the Bank of Canada, in which purchases and sales of bonds by the Bank of Canada increase and decrease the banks’ cash reserves, and thus the money supply. The Bank of Canada, however, does have other methods of influencing the volume of lending by the banks and thus the money supply, some of which are discussed in the following sections.

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The Nature and Importance of Money

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010


The opportunity cost of holding each dollar of money balances is the rate of interest that could have been earned if the money balances is the rate of interest that could have been earned if the money had been used to purchase bonds.

Clearly, then, money will be held only if it provides services to the holders that are at least as valuable as the opportunity cost of holding it. The total amount of money balances that everyone wishes to hold for all purposes is called the demand for money.

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Portfolio Strategy

Sunday, February 28th, 2010


An inflationary environment is very difficult for all financial assets. It is hardest on fixed income, since interest payments are fixed on the bulk of debt securities. Equities have in the past shown an ability to generate positive rates of inflation-adjusted, or real, return in inflationary environments, due to the ability of corporations to pass on at least some of the increases in input costs to selling prices. However, equities too have a much more difficult time in periods of increasing inflation.

In light of the inflationary backdrop, we have encouraged investors to reduce holdings of bonds, which do very poorly in inflationary environments.

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What is the National Debt?

Sunday, February 7th, 2010


The National Debt is the overall debt of the federal government – the difference between the federal government’s liabilities (mostly outstanding bonds) and its “net recorded assets” (mostly those assets which yield interest, profits or dividends). Thus it measures, on balance, how much the federal government owes to creditors.

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Significance of Changes in the Price Level

Saturday, October 31st, 2009


Major price level movements, such as Canada has experienced, generally have profoundly disturbing repercussions. They may significantly affect the level at which the economy operates, and are likely to bring about pronounced shifts in the real wealth and income of different members of the community.

Deflation

The marked deflation of 1920 and the early 1930′s were accompanied by sharp reductions in the levels of profits, employment, and production. Businessmen who had acquired large inventories, at high prices, lost heavily when prices fell. Falling prices generated pessimism in regard to the future and a general hesitation to produce goods for future sale, or to undertake investments which would yield their benefit in the future. A great many workers lost their jobs and production declined heavily. Debtors became heavily oppressed as falling prices increased the real value of their debts and of their interest obligations. In many cases the falling prices, at the same time, sharply reduced debtors incomes. Thus farmers of Western Canada who had borrowed large sums to purchase more land and equipment, were reduced to desperate straits when the prices of farm products fell heavily. With incomes sharply reduced, the obligation to pay a fixed amount of interest each year proved to be a crushing burden. they suffered in this way in the early 1920′s and again in the 1930′s.

Not all people were adversely affected by deflation, however. People who had savings in the form of cash or fixed value securities such as bonds, found that the real value of their savings had increased. With prices lower, each dollar of their savings could buy more than before. People whose incomes were fixed in terms of money similarly benefited from the deflation. Pensioners receiving fixed pensions, bondholders who received fixed amounts of money as interest, employees who continued to receive their usual salaries, all found that the deflation had increased their real incomes. Not all bondholders and salaried employees were so lucky, however. Many bondholders were unable during deflationary periods to collect the money due them, and many salaried employees lost their jobs. The seemingly “fixed’ incomes turned out not to be “fixed” after all.

Economic Political Satire

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What is the National Debt?

Sunday, September 20th, 2009


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