Posts Tagged ‘Bond Yields’

Economic Trends and Outlooks

Tuesday, May 6th, 2008


Remarkably in this environment , core inflation has remained quite muted. Nevertheless the Bank of Canada , resumed its expected tightening moves in the last years. Overnight rates may be hiked more than once in the next coming months.

Labour markets are tight and tight to the point that labor shortages may become evident in many sectors – especially in the booming Alberta and British Columbia economies. Wage inflation may well follow suit with surging energy and petroleum commodity prices and pricing.

Economic data continues to be strong. This is largely reflective of the recent trend and trend lines in energy as well as metal and raw material commodity prices. This has narrowed investment income deficits , which when coupled with continual strong trade surpluses especially in regards to oil – bode for a very strong underpinning of the Canadian dollar currency and currencies. In addition bond yields will continue to be strong despite the continued rise in short term interest rates. Long term interest rates will continue to be quite muted and demand for long term duration fixed income products by pensions and coming pensioners will remain more than strong in the financial and financial markets. Even the mildly inverted yield curve ( tow year bonds yields exceed 10 year bond yields by around 6 basis points) an outlook of solid growth and solid profits , low domestic inflation, rising incomes and strong trade balances appear to be in the offing.

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Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning – for the first time – that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007


Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning – for the first time – that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.

Described as China’s “nuclear option” in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing’s foreign reserves should be used as a “bargaining chip” in talks with the US.

“Of course, China doesn’t want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order,” he added.

He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.

“China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.

“China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan’s exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar,” he told China Daily.

The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being “held hostage to economic decisions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo”.

She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.

Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.

“The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles,” he said.

A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.

The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China’s trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June

 

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