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The past year Canadian equity investors have ad to accept that the index is likely to more volatile due to its high concentration in two cyclical factors. The market’s volatility over the course of the year serves as a reminder of the importance of international currency diversification within portfolios – not only to help control the effect of being exposed to weakness in the domestic currency market but also to provide exposure to greater breadth and / or a different mixture of foreign currency instruments .

The headwinds created by the rising Canadian dollar currency have eroded return on foreign holdings in recent years.

Clearly the significant role and significant risks clearly highlight the roles played by foreign currencies. While this has been frustrating , it does present investors and speculators an opportunity to acquire foreign currency holdings at a substantially reduced costs versus previous trend and holding patterns.

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It has been a remarkable 5 years for the Canadian dollar , currency and equity markets. During 2003, 2004 and 2005

Canadian stocks rose 27% . 14 % and 24% . respectively and it appears that the 2007 market will again be another strong year for currencies , currency and equity financial markets. Strong performance however masks some of the challenges faced by the Canadian , North American , U.S and foreign equity and currency exchange markets.

With roughly 44 % of the Standard and Poors S & P Composite index in energy and materials , Canada’s performance has and will continue to be influenced by the global economy and by extensions – commodities and the foreign currency exchange fluctuations. While the materials sector has performed exceptionally this year due to more than robust earnings and consolidations, the CRB index ( a rough measure of commodity prices standardized for currency fluctuations) is down approximately 17 % from the its May 2006 peak. The year to date decline in oil and gas prices has caused the energy sector to lag the rest of the markets this year.

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In the coming year , the weakest sectors will begin to show some life as the layoffs and production cuts in manufacturing due to currency adjustments begin to dissipate and the housing market adjusts to interest rates plays from the federal reserve monetary policies.

The Canadian dollar is headed for a range around 86 cents, slightly improving our export positions. While the resource sector will remain strong it will not post the outsized expansion seen since 2001. Similarly corporate financial and currency profits will rise , but at a considerably slower pace in the past few years.

Inflation pressures will diminish as core inflation values decelerate. Interest rates will be maintained a historically lower levels. This will occur with or within Federal Reserve authority directions. Economic growth will likely continue at sub pacing levels and the U.S. economy will be continue to be lumped against financial and foreign currency restraints.

Labor market and labor market costs will continue bump against capacity restraints. Construction of commercial , retail and industrial sites will continue to remain strong. Lagged response to the drop in office vacancy rates and rises in industrial utilization will come into play as this environment bonds will likely perform well. Global diversification os warranted as dollar and dollar resource stock will not longer eclipse other financial growth and forex foreign currency trading investmenting and investments.

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Turning points were readily apparent in 2006 as most commodity prices crested. The Canadian dollar peaked. Inflation pressures re-emerged and reintegrated reenergized. The fiscal economies of both Canada , the U.S.A and the E.U . slowed.

In this uncertain enviornment the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada stopped raising interest rates and moved to the sidelines. In late 2006 a decline in manufacturing was led by the auto industry as production cuts and layoffs continued through out the year end of 2006.. Housing activity in the us nosedived all year , while the second half slowdown in residential activity in the U.K. was relatively mild. Despite these drag on the economy , employment and real incomes grew in both countries and shortages were more than evident.

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Reserves in Saudi Arabia’s humongous Ghawar field which pumps roughly five million barrels of oil per day ( meeting 6 % of world demand) are declining 8 % a year in fact. Saudi oil production has been declining 8 % a year. Saudi oil production has been dropping since 2004.

Mexico’s big oil field Cantarell. peaked in 2004 , are slightly over two million barrels per day. Since then , its production is down to just 1.6 million barrels per day. In the next three years Cantareil will produce less than half a million barrels per day. Soon after that Mexico will have to start importing ooil.

The world consumes 173 billion barrels of oil per day – 14 Prudhoe Bays – every 2.4 years. The world will consume 10 % of the remaining conventional crude pol reserves .

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