Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

A Balance of Payments Deficit

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011


If Canada has a Balance of Payments deficit, Canada’s payments (offers to sell Canadian dollars) exceed her receipts (offers to buy Canadian dollars). As a result, the supply of Canadian dollars in foreign exchange markets will exceed the demand for Canadian dollars, and the international price of the Canadian dollar will fall. An example of such a situation is 1974-75, when Canadian exports slumped and a large deficit move (“float”) up and down as the supply of and demand for its change, it said to be operating on a floating exchange rate system.

In the following, we will examine how a system of floating exchange rates, or currency prices, operates, under conditions of (a) a Balance of Payments surplus and (b) a Balance of Payments deficit.

 

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The Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate

Saturday, December 17th, 2011


As we have seen, foreign exchange markets, in which the currencies of various nations are bought and sold, resemble a tug of war between each nation’s receipts (which push the international price of its currency up) and its payments (which push the international price of its currency down). There are three possible situations regarding a nation’s Balance of Payments and the international value of its currency, which are:

(a) a Balance of Payments deficit, when payments exceed receipts,

(b) a Balance of Payments surplus, when receipts exceed payments, and

(c) equilibrium in the Balance of Payments, with payments equal to receipts

Using Canada as an example, we will examine the results of each of these situations.

 

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Balance of Payments Deficits and the Exchange Rate

Friday, December 9th, 2011


forex 300x195 Balance of Payments Deficits and the Exchange Rate

(a) Developed in trade goods and services, leading to declines in the international value of the Canadian dollar.

(b) A Balance of Payments Surplus

If Canada has a Balance of Payments surplus, Canada’s receipts will exceed her payments so that the demand for the Canadian dollar will exceed the supply of it, causing the international price of the Canadian dollar to rise, as shown in Figure 18-5. Such a situation occurred in the early 1970′s, when strong exports boosted the international value of the Canadian dollar.

(c) Equilibrium in the Balance of Payments

If Canada’s Balance of Payments were in equilibrium, with receipts equal to payments, the supply of and demand for the Canadian dollar would be in balance, and the international value of the Canadian dollar would tend to remain stable, until an imbalance developed between receipts and payments.

 

 

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Long-Term Borrowing

Monday, December 5th, 2011


A major source of funds for capital investment is long-term borrowing, through the issue of bonds that are usually repayable after ten or more years. However, severe inflation makes it much less attractive to corporations to engage in long-term borrowing, by forcing interest rates to high levels. Inflation causes high interest rates in two ways: first, lenders demand an interest “premium” to compensate them for the declining value of their capital, and, second, the policies used by the government to restrain inflation involve increases in interest rates. In particular, the very high interest rates associated with the severe inflation of the 1970′s made many corporations reluctant to raise capital through bond issues that would commit them to paying very high interest expenses for many years.

It seems logical that such high interest rates would at least provide people with strong incentives to save, but this is not so, due to the effects of inflation and taxation. Figure 15-4 shows the return on $100 of savings invested at a 15-percent rate of interest for one year during which the rate of inflation is 12 percent. Although 15 percent seems like a high rate of interest, this is very misleading. While $15 of interest income is received, the purchasing power of the lender’s capital declines by $12 (12 percent of $100) due to inflation, leaving a real return of $3. Assuming that income tax is payable at a rate of 40 percent on the interest income, taxes will amount to $6 (40 percent of $15), leaving a net after-tax return of -$3.

 

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The Tax Implications of Overstated Profits

Thursday, December 1st, 2011


The problem of overstated business profits has important implications for capital investment, because business pays taxes on the exaggerated reported profits, not on more realistic inflation-adjusted figures. Because taxes on profits are calculated on these overstated profit figures, the taxes are also inflated – they are higher than the real profit situation warrants. As a result, the combined effect of inflation plus taxation has been to significantly reduced.

 

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