Reduction of Government Spending

July 28th, 2010

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Rapid economic growth or high inflation would improve Greece’s prospects for survival. Neither is a realistic option. For the countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, the savage austerity measures required are unlikely to be palatable and probably won’t work in any case. All roads may lead eventually to debt restructuring.

The real agenda of the bailout is to avoid foreign lenders taking large losses. In aggregate, the exposure of Germany and France to troubled European countries is around $1 trillion. According to the Bank for International Settlements, as at the end of 2009, French banks and German banks have lent $493 billion and $465 billion respectively to Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

The real purpose of the bailout is to prepare for a possible series of sovereign debt restructuring in Europe. In an ideal world, banks and investors raise capital and write down their exposure to the troubled debtors over time allowing the restructuring to be relatively smooth, avoiding disruption to financial markets.

A combination of self-reinforcing events is driving a pernicious reversal of the dynamics of 2008-09. Then, co-ordinated government action on a grand scale stopped the global financial crisis from turning into a depression.

Government central bank strategy was a bet on growth and inflation, as the most painless means of adjusting the overly leveraged and deeply indebted global economy. Now, governments have become the problem, perhaps calling time on the wishful thinking of markets.

The most important consequence of Greece and European sovereign debt problems will be to force governments everywhere to stabilize and reverse the deterioration in public finances, by a combination of new taxes and cutting expenditures.

Many indebted economies, including Britain and Italy, have implemented austerity measures. The sharp reduction of government spending coincides with the end of the effects of stimulus packages and is likely to slow economic growth.

Refusing to acknowledge the real problems, major economies have over the last decades transferred debt from companies to consumers and finally onto public balance sheets. A huge amount of assets and risk now is held by central banks and governments, which are not designed for such long-term ownership.

There are now no more balance sheets that can be leveraged to support the current levels of debt. The lack of viable policy options is increasingly evident in the panicked reactions of governments.

At best, a withdrawal of government support (through lower spending and higher taxes) will reduce global demand and usher in a potentially prolonged period of stagnation. At worst, increasing difficulty in sovereigns raising money and a clutch of sovereign debt rescheduling may result in a sharp deterioration in financial and economic conditions.

There is no political will to tackle  deep-seated problems. The electorate is unwilling to accept the adjustments and lower living standards that will be necessary. As the credit crisis enters its third year, the scale of sovereign debts means governments now have limited room to counter any new economic downturn and new problems or crisis.

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New Terms

July 25th, 2010

Market Structure – Term used to describe the organization and nature of a market or an industry, particularly whether it is competitive or non competitive in nature.

Competitive Industry – An industry that consists of many small firms and is easily entered by new competitors.

Non-Competitive Industry – An industry that is dominated by a few large firms and is not easily entered by new competitors.

Price-Taker – Term used to describe the position of the individual small firm in a competitive industry, which is unable to influence the price of its product and is forced to accept (take) whatever price is determined in the market.

Price-Maker – Term used to describe the position of the dominant firm(s) in an industry, which can influence the price of the product.

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The Nature of Supply

July 21st, 2010

For this price will be bid up toward the equilibrium level of $6. Only at a price of $6 per kilogram are the actions of both buyers and sellers in harmony, so that there is neither a surplus nor a shortage. As a result, the price will stabilize at the equilibrium level of $6 per kilogram.

The interaction of supply and demand can also be shown on a graph, as in Figure 7-13. On the graph, the equilibrium price of $6 is determined by the intersection of the supply curve and the demand curve at the equilibrium point (E). Similarly, the intersection of the curves determines the quantity that will be bought (and sold), or the “equilibrium quantity” of 50,000 kilograms.

In summary, the way in which supply and demand interact to determine the price of a product or service can be represented on a schedule such as Figure 7-12, or on a graph such as Figure 7-13. Both the schedule and the graph depict the behavior of buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) in the market for a particular good or service, and the equilibrium price and quantity that will emerge in that market.

Figure 7-13 is a very static representation of a market, showing the demand for and supply of steak at a particular time (March 1982). In reality, however, markets are not static as Figure 7—13 seems to suggest, but are dynamic, with constant changes in supply and demand occurring, causing continual changes in equilibrium prices and quantities. In effect, then, Figure 7—13 is a snapshot of a dynamic, changing situation at a particular point in time. In the next chapter, we will consider how markets change and adjust in response to changes in both supply and demand.

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Microeconomics

July 18th, 2010

Problems and while the circumstances described can give top management control of a large corporation, this does not mean that the top managers make all the decisions in such corporations. Unlike a small business, in which decision making is dominated by one or a few people, large corporations employ large numbers of specialists in areas such as marketing, product design, finance, personnel, law, data processing and so on. The role of top management is not so much to make decisions in these people’s areas as it is to set down plans and objectives for the corporation, and to select and organize people and to coordinate their efforts, establishing an environment in which they can work effectively, making the maximum contribution to the corporation with their skills and knowledge. Such people – called the “technostructure” by economist John Kenneth Gaibraith and “knowledge workers” by Peter Drucker, the management theorist – are vital to the success of the large corporation, and the art (or task) of the top manager is to utilize them effectively. This explains the high mobility of chief executive officers, many of whom move quite freely between corporations in different industries, and between corporations and top positions in government  agencies. It also explains the fact that, whereas the loss of its president would likely be a catastrophe for a small business, the loss of the chief executive officer or a large corporation often goes almost unnoticed of the stock market and in the operations of the company, because it is the chief executive officer’s job has been done well, the company will continue to function effectively until a replacement is selected. In this sense, then, it can be argued that the key to effective corporate decision-making lies in the middle-level specialists of its “technostructure” and, while it cannot be said that these people control the corporation, it also cannot be denied that their knowledge and expertise gives them great influence over its decisions.

A “proxy” is a legal instrument whereby a shareholder in effect delegates to another person authority to vote on his or her behalf, either according to specific directions or as the person holding the proxy sees fit. Usually, proxies are solicited by and given to people representing the management of the corporation, as noted above. Occasionally, however, a dissident group of shareholders will attempt to use proxies to gain control of the corporation, setting off a “proxy war” in which it and the management compete for the proxies of the shareholders (and thus control of the corporation).

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Government Enterprises

July 14th, 2010

No discussion of big business in Canada would be complete without reference to government-owned enterprises. Comprising roughly 10 percent of Canada’s very large corporations, government enterprises often take the form of “Crown Corporations.” Crown Corporations, like other corporations, are legally independent, separate entities. However, most or all or their shares are owned by the government, which established these corporations, making them ultimately responsible to the government, through a cabinet minister. In addition to Crown Corporations, government enterprises often take the form of “boards” or “commissions,” such as hydroelectric commissions.

Whatever legal forms they take, government enterprises constitute an important part of “big business” in Canada. The largest single activity of government enterprises is the provision of electricity: the combined sales of the provinces’ electricity utilities would place them among Canada’s largest three industrial corporations. Traditionally, government enterprises have been important in the fields of transportation and communications in Canada, with Canadian National Railways, Air Canada, Pacific Western Airlines, British Columbia Railway and Nordair all being well-known government corporations in this field. More recently, government enterprises such as PetroCan, Atomic Energy of Canada, Eldorado Nuclear, the Canada Development Corporation and the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan have established a significant presence in the energy and resources sector can control the shareholders’ meetings through proxies. Under these circumstances, the top management of a corporation can exercise quite complete control of the firm, even to the point of nominating and selecting the members of the Board of Directors to which top management reports. In such cases, the management of the corporation can usually retain secure control as long as the corporation performs well enough to keep the shareholders content enough that they do not organize in opposition to the management. Those shareholders who disagree strongly with management’s decisions will generally sell their stocks rather than engage in a struggle for Canadian control which will probably prove futile.

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Canadian Microeconomics:Problems and Policies

July 11th, 2010

This idea is reinforced further by the fact that many directors serve on the boards of several companies, in what are called “interlocking directorships,” which tends to magnify their influence further. About one-quarter of Canadian corporate directors have significant “interlocking” connections, many of which are effected through Canada’s large and powerful chartered banks, as senior personnel from large corporations often serve on the boards of the banks and vice versa. There are different views concerning the significance of this so-called corporate business elite, with some observers feeling reassured by the stability and judgment that it provides, others seeing in it something threatening and sinister, and still others doubting whether its significance with respect to the actual operational decisions of Canada’s major corporations is as great as is often supposed.

Regardless of which of these views is the more accurate, it can be said in conclusion that large corporations play a very important role in the Canadian economy, even greater relatively to the size of the economy than in the USA, and that in these large corporations, control is often separated from ownership. Widespread small shareholders are not in a position to exercise active control. As a result, control tends to shift, depending on the circumstances, to the top management of the corporation or to the groups of influential members of the Board of Directors. Generally, neither top managers nor directors are major shareholders in their corporation; their claim to control over the corporation is based on their expertise rather than on ownership.

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Business Organization in Canada

July 7th, 2010

In summary, when the shareholders are numerous and dispersed, control of large corporations often resides with the top management; however, it is also true that in these situations the corporation’s decision-making process is strongly influenced by its personnel who are specialists in various areas. This situation is generally accepted as being quite common in large corporations in the USA, as well as in many corporations in Canada.

In Canada, it is widely accepted that in many large corporations, the Board of Directors takes a more active part in company policies and decisions than is suggested in the preceding paragraphs. Sometimes such control is exercised through Boards of Directors by majority shareholders, such as family interests or other corporations that own a majority of the shares. However, the situation is not always so clear-cut: under certain conditions, a group of shareholders (individuals or other corporations) can maintain control of a corporation’s Board of Directors even though it holds only a small percentage of the total shares outstanding; such control can be achieved through proxy votes or simply through personal relationships between the people involved. For instance, Argus Corporation traditionally exercised considerable influence over corporations in which it held interests, even though these were not majority interests.

While these corporate directors are seldom major stockholders themselves, they are in a position to decide the policies of some of the country’s most important corporations. Who, then, are these people? The Financial Post’s “Directory of Directors” lists approximately 14000 names, but it is generally considered that less than 1000 of them possess any significant influence. Generally, directors are older people, averaging 58 years of age, who share the same conservative values. These common characteristics aside, directors tend to fall into several categories. About 20 percent of them are from large law firms whose expertise and political affiliations may be of value to a corporation, especially when dealing with governments and their regulatory agencies. Some are “establishment” names who lend their prestige to a company’s board. There is also a group of “professional directors” who are not attached permanently to any one corporation but who offer their Premier of Ontario, held ten directorships. This raises the idea of a Canadian “corporate business elite”: a relatively small group of people who can exercise a great deal of influence on business decisions through their strategic positions in the large corporations of the nation.

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Year End Financial Checklist

June 22nd, 2010

Are you in control of your financial future? This checklist can help ensure you are in the driver’s seat.

Cash flow needs

  • Establish a budget to track income and expenses to uncover any potential surplus for investment.
  • Where you have cash flow shortfalls, review discretionary expenses and determine areas where you can cut back.
  • Establish an emergency fund or approximately three month’s worth of expenses. Or, establish a personal line of credit.
  • Take advantage of any pre-payment options on your mortgage.

Estate needs

  • Review your Wills and Powers of Attorney once every three years (or more frequently if appropriate) to ensure your estate will be distributed according  to your wishes.
  • Prepare Powers of Attorney (both General and for Personal Care).
  • Review beneficiary designations on RRSPs, RRIFs, and life insurance policies.

Insurance needs

  • Review your level of life insurance coverage to ensure that your family will be taken care of in the event of your death.
  • Review your disability insurance – is it adequate?
  • Ensure that coverage for your home, dwelling, and contents reflect their true replacement value.

Retirement needs

  • Review and update your retirement plan to ensure that you stay on track to realizing your retirement goals.

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Energy Consumption

June 18th, 2010

In a world where it has become increasingly difficult to find things people have in common, here’s one: We all need energy. Indeed, we need a staggering amount of it – and in the future we’re going to need more. According to the Energy Information Administration, the arm of the government  that tracks energy use and makes estimates for the future, the worldwide demand for energy is expected to grow by 57% between 2004 and 2030. The way things stand now – with just 2% of energy coming from renewable, environmentally friendly sources – that’s going to mean a lot of fossil-fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, and, as oil flirts with record prices (it topped $99 per barrel in November), a whole lot of money. What we need, clearly, is an alternative future, and what’s going to get us there is alternative energy.

Of course, we’ve heard that story before. We heard it during the first oil crisis in 1973 and the second in 1979, when the search was on for new forms of energy; investments and publicity flowed, particularly into solar power. But when oil prices dropped, so did the push for alternatives. Indeed, more than a quarter of a century later, we still depend on fossil fuels – oil, coal, and natural gas – for the vast majority of our energy needs. In 2006, the U.S. consumed nearly 85 quadrillion BTUs of energy from fossil fuels, according to the EIA, compared with just 6.8 quadrillion from all renewable sources combined. The technologies that promised to save the day, it turned out, needed help themselves.

Progress was stalled on seemingly every front. Solar power -  a bountiful source of energy considering that the sun provides 6,000 times the power we need at any given moment – wasn’t cost-effective; the photovoltaic cells that converted light to energy were too expensive to make more than a dent in our energy use (and even for that, tax incentives and rebates were usually necessary). Geothermal power, energy coming from heat stored beneath the earth’s surface, has been mostly limited to sites in the western U.S. Hydroelectric power plants, which account for the bulk of renewable energy we use, were difficult and time-consuming to build, with most of the best sites in the U.S. already developed. Worse, in the last couple of years, researchers have argued that in certain cases, where forests were not cleared prior to a reservoir’s construction and decomposing plant life was creating methane, greenhouse gas emissions were actually higher than at fossil-fuel power plants.

Given the track record, here’s the surprise: Things are looking up – dramatically. It’s not that we’ve found a single source of energy that does it all. Instead we’re developing new technologies, and new tools, that are turbocharging a wide range of energy solutions. They’re giving us newer, more cost-effective ways to tap solar power; they’re enabling cleaner diesels and better ways to produce biofuels. They’re letting us do more, and travel further, while decreasing emissions.

And it’s not just the technologies that are evolving; it’s the business of alternative energy, too. The companies and investors that are embracing this field know that there’s no magic bullet for the world’s energy challenge. Instead, we’re going to need a portfolio of power: technologies and research that take many different pathways. It may look like we’re hedging our bets, but what we’re really doing is opening many doors to a brighter, cleaner, and plentiful energy future.

So why is alternative energy taking off now? There are a couple of reasons. First, there’s a growing concern – not just on the part of individuals, but companies, too – about climate change, primarily the global warming that, left unchecked, can lead to species extinction, extreme weather.

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Artisan International

June 15th, 2010

Flexible. Patient. Sensitive. Those might sound like adjectives from a Match.com listing, but they’re terms Morning star analyst Dan Lefkovitz uses to describe Artisan International fund manager Mark Yockey. Yockey, who has helmed the portfolio since 1996, has made a name for himself by finding longterm growth stories across developed and emerging  markets. He closely studies global trends like demographic changes, infrastructure development, increasing privatization, and the surge in outsourcing to unearth catalysts that could spark corporate earnings growth or high levels of free cash flow. At the same time, Yockey is sensitive to valuations, using a variety of metrics to make sure he’s not overpaying.

Those themes and price concerns result in a portfolio of some 90 stocks based anywhere from Canada to Qatar. (European stocks make up roughly 60% of the fund; companies in emerging markets account for about 20%.) One recent addition: In the third quarter of this year, Yockey picked up Spanish telecom leader Telefonica, which serves some 220 million customers in Europe. It was a call that paid off quickly: The stock has soared more than 40% since the beginning of July, helping the fund post an impressive 23% gain over the past 12 months.

With stock-picking successes like that, it’s no wonder the fund has gained more than 15% a year over the past decade, whipping the MSCI EAFE foreign index by six percentage points. That makes Artisan International a real world-beater – and puts Yockey well on his way to becoming an Old Master.

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